A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
