Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The mean figure of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new government statistics. However, security experts have advised that homicide numbers may not signal better national stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This data was provided by the head of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had during these months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the least figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety approach for an apparently more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is especially true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for gauging the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it could hide periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were detained between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas remarked.